Center for Environmental Research and Technology

Overview

This project evaluates NOx and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends of the Heavy-Duty (HD) transportation sector in California’s South Coast region under future scenarios. Modeling analysis using original vehicle population projections and real-world NOx emission factors are used to estimate emissions over the 2020 to 2040 timeframe.

Abstract Summary

The objective of this study is to identify the challenges and opportunities presented in the HD transportation sector, consisting Medium-Heavy-Duty (MHD) and Heavy-Heavy-Duty (HHD) vehicles, for meeting California’s fundamental air quality, climate, energy, and environmental equity objectives. In addition, we evaluate select pathway scenarios towards achieving major policy targets. For the purposes of this report, a ZEV is defined as a vehicle that does not produce tailpipe emissions of pollutants and an NZEV is defined as a vehicle that produces 0.02 g-NOx/bhp-hr or lower tailpipe NOx emissions. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) are included in the ZEV category while Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV) that meet the tailpipe NOx emission criteria are considered to be NZEVs.  In particular, this report analyses how many tons of key pollutant emissions can be reduced from HD diesel trucks with a ZE approach compared to a combined NZE and ZE approach. The report also assesses which technology pathways achieve the greatest reductions in NOx and GHGs in the years 2025, 2030 and 2045. NOx and GHGs are selected as key pollutants to evaluate because of the prominent role they play in achieving all three of California’s fundamental policy objectives.